Women's Big Bash League · Predictions

Women's Big Bash League 2026 predictions

Who wins, who finishes runner-up, who hits the most sixes and who posts the biggest score, from 20,000 simulations of the whole season, with every team rated on its batting, its bowling and its death bowling.

Updated 11 Nov 2026, including the 8 results played so far.

Predicted winner
chance of winning the title
Predicted runner-up
chance of losing the final
Most sixes
about 36 sixes across the season
Highest innings
top score of the season around 213

Title chances

The whole season is played out 20,000 times: every league match still to come, then the finals (the Knockout between 3rd and 4th, the Challenger between 2nd and the Knockout winner, and the Final, hosted by the team that finishes top). This table counts how often each team ended up where. The percentages are chances, not certainties: a team with a 30% chance still misses out on the title seven seasons in ten.

Team Win Runner-up Make final Top 4 Minor premiers Avg finish Exp pts
Sydney Thunder
38%
26% 64% 90% 38% 2.4 13.6
Sydney Sixers
29%
27% 56% 87% 31% 2.6 13.0
Perth Scorchers
13%
19% 32% 73% 15% 3.5 11.8
Adelaide Strikers
12%
16% 28% 66% 11% 3.8 11.1
Hobart Hurricanes
2.7%
4.3% 7.1% 25% 1.2% 5.8 8.1
Melbourne Stars
2.6%
4.4% 7.0% 27% 1.4% 5.5 8.4
Brisbane Heat
1.5%
2.7% 4.2% 18% 0.7% 6.1 7.2
Melbourne Renegades
1.1%
2.1% 3.2% 15% 0.5% 6.4 6.8

How to read this table

Win
How often the team won the Final. The bar compares each team with the favourite.
Runner-up
How often the team reached the Final and lost it.
Make final
Win and Runner-up added together: how often the team played in the Final.
Top 4
How often the team finished in the top four of the league table, the places that go into the finals.
Minor premiers
How often the team finished top of the league table, which means hosting the Final.
Avg finish
The team's average league position across all the simulations (1 = top).
Exp pts
Average league points: 2 for a win and 1 for a no result, including points already won.

Teams level on points are split by run difference, which stands in for net run rate. Tap a column heading to sort by it.

Team ratings

Each side's strongest XI (see predicted XIs) is compared with the average Women's Big Bash League side, in runs per innings. A batting rating of +5 means the line-up should score about 5 more runs than an average line-up against the same attack, and a bowling rating of +5 means the attack should concede about 5 fewer runs. Wickets count too, turned into the runs they're worth.

Team Overall Batting Bowling Death bowling Bowling options Sixes per innings
Sydney Thunder +11.9 +11.1 +0.8 +0.8 8 / 10 3.8
Sydney Sixers +6.5 +2.1 +4.4 −1.2 9 / 12 2.8
Perth Scorchers +1.7 +1.0 +0.7 +0.4 9 / 11 2.9
Adelaide Strikers −0.3 +0.6 −0.9 −1.1 7 / 8 2.2
Hobart Hurricanes −1.4 −2.0 +0.6 +0.1 9 / 12 3.5
Melbourne Stars −3.9 −6.5 +2.7 +0.9 6 / 9 2.5
Brisbane Heat −6.2 −1.0 −5.2 −0.9 6 / 7 2.6
Melbourne Renegades −8.3 −5.3 −3.0 +1.0 9 / 10 2.6

How to read this table

Overall
Batting and bowling added together: roughly how many runs a match better (+) or worse (−) the side is than an average Women's Big Bash League team. The table is in this order.
Batting
Runs per innings the XI adds compared with an average line-up. Players are rated on how fast they score and how often they get out. The top order counts most because they face the most balls.
Bowling
Runs per innings the attack saves compared with an average attack, with the 20 overs shared out the way a captain would. If a side doesn't have five genuine bowlers in its XI, part-timers bowl the rest, which costs runs. That's how a lack of bowling depth shows up.
Death bowling
The part of the bowling rating that comes from overs 17–20, bowled by the side's best death bowlers (2 overs each at most). It's already included in Bowling.
Bowling options
Genuine bowlers in the predicted XI / in the whole squad: players with at least 6 overs in the recent data. More options in the squad means injuries and bad days are easier to cover.
Sixes per innings
How many sixes the XI is expected to hit in an innings against an average attack.

Each phase is judged on its own (powerplay overs 1–6, middle overs 7–16, death overs 17–20), because conceding 8 an over is good at the death and poor in the middle.

Most sixes and highest innings

In each simulated season every innings gets a score and a number of sixes, so we can see which team ends the season with the most sixes and which one posts the single highest innings. Sixes depend on the batters' six-hitting, on how often the opposition's bowlers get hit for six, and on how big the innings is. Big totals mostly come batting first, because a chase stops once the target is passed.

Team Most sixes Expected sixes Highest innings Typical best score
Sydney Thunder 56% 36 25% 196
Sydney Sixers 26% 32 26% 196
Hobart Hurricanes 9.9% 28 8.2% 183
Brisbane Heat 2.8% 24 7.7% 184
Perth Scorchers 2.4% 23 11% 187
Melbourne Stars 1.0% 21 5.2% 192
Adelaide Strikers 0.9% 21 13% 189
Melbourne Renegades 0.6% 19 4.5% 179

How to read this table

Most sixes
How often the team finished the season with more sixes than anyone else. If two teams tie, the season is split between them. The table is in this order.
Expected sixes
The team's average number of sixes across the whole season, finals included.
Highest innings
How often the team posted the single highest score of the whole competition.
Typical best score
The team's highest score of the season in a typical (middle) simulation.

Teams that go deep into the finals play more matches, so they get more chances at both. Washed-out matches (about 5% of games) count for nothing here.

Match predictions

Each match gets its own prediction a few days before it's played, when its stats preview is published: who's likely to win, likely scores, sixes and both predicted XIs. Once it's made it doesn't change, so after the match you can see how it compared with what happened. So far the favourite has won 4 of 6 completed matches.

MatchDateFavouriteChanceResult
Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers 30 Oct 2026 Sydney Sixers 62% Sydney Sixers won by 4 wickets ✓
Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars 31 Oct 2026 Melbourne Stars 54% Adelaide Strikers won by 21 runs ✗
Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Renegades 31 Oct 2026 Perth Scorchers 55% Perth Scorchers won by 9 wickets ✓
Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat 1 Nov 2026 Sydney Thunder 68% Sydney Thunder won by 6 wickets ✓
Sydney Sixers v Hobart Hurricanes 1 Nov 2026 Sydney Sixers 58% Sydney Sixers won by 87 runs ✓
Melbourne Stars v Perth Scorchers 2 Nov 2026 Melbourne Stars 55% Perth Scorchers won by 15 runs ✗
Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Renegades 4 Nov 2026 Hobart Hurricanes 59% To be played
Adelaide Strikers v Brisbane Heat 5 Nov 2026 Adelaide Strikers 54% To be played
Sydney Thunder v Perth Scorchers 5 Nov 2026 Sydney Thunder 60% To be played
Melbourne Stars v Sydney Sixers 6 Nov 2026 Sydney Sixers 54% To be played
Melbourne Renegades v Adelaide Strikers 7 Nov 2026 Adelaide Strikers 55% To be played
Brisbane Heat v Hobart Hurricanes 7 Nov 2026 Too close to call 51% To be played
Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder 8 Nov 2026 Sydney Thunder 54% To be played
Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars 8 Nov 2026 Perth Scorchers 58% To be played
Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers 10 Nov 2026 Too close to call 52% To be played
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Thunder 11 Nov 2026 Sydney Thunder 58% To be played
Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat 12 Nov 2026 Melbourne Stars 54% To be played
Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Sixers 12 Nov 2026 Sydney Sixers 62% To be played
Hobart Hurricanes v Brisbane Heat 14 Nov 2026 Hobart Hurricanes 57% To be played
Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers 14 Nov 2026 Perth Scorchers 54% To be played

How to read this table

Favourite
The side the model gave the better chance of winning when the prediction was made. If neither side had more than 52.5%, the match is too close to call.
Chance
The favourite's chance of winning (washouts left out).
Result
What happened, once the match is in the database: ✓ the favourite won, ✗ the other side did.

A favourite with a 60% chance should still lose about 4 times in 10, so judge the predictions over a whole season, not one match.

Predicted XIs

The ratings above come from these sides: the strongest XI each squad allows, with at most 3 overseas players and a wicketkeeper. Players are listed in order of batting rating, which isn't necessarily the order the team will bat in. Underneath is how the model shares out the 20 overs.

Sydney Thunder

Bat +11.1 Bowl +0.8 Death +0.8
  1. Laura Kimmince SR 174 · econ 7.14
  2. Phoebe Litchfield SR 142
  3. Heather Knight OS SR 129 · econ 7.96
  4. Georgia Voll SR 133 · econ 7.78
  5. Anika Learoyd SR 120
  6. Nadine de Klerk OS SR 120 · econ 8.04
  7. Tahlia Wilson WK SR 110
  8. Lucy Finn SR 111 · econ 8.00
  9. Lauren Bell OS SR 106 · econ 6.69
  10. Jemma Barsby SR 107 · econ 7.66
  11. Hannah Darlington SR 101 · econ 8.02
Powerplay
Lauren Bell 2, Jemma Barsby 3, Laura Kimmince 1
Middle overs
Laura Kimmince 3, Hannah Darlington 4, Lucy Finn 3
Death overs
Lauren Bell 2, Georgia Voll 2

Rest of the squad: Sam Bates, Hasrat Gill, Nicola Hancock, Claire Moore

Sydney Sixers

Bat +2.1 Bowl +4.4 Death −1.2
  1. Ellyse Perry SR 133 · econ 7.61
  2. Ashleigh Gardner SR 137 · econ 7.65
  3. Sophia Dunkley OS SR 131 · econ 7.99
  4. Amelia Kerr OS SR 121 · econ 7.12
  5. Maitlan Brown SR 114 · econ 7.37
  6. Sarah Coyte SR 113 · econ 7.83
  7. Grace Lyons WK SR 110
  8. Frankie Nicklin SR 109
  9. Elsa Hunter OS SR 108 · econ 7.21
  10. Caoimhe Bray SR 110 · econ 7.17
  11. Erin Burns SR 105 · econ 7.35
Powerplay
Caoimhe Bray 3, Maitlan Brown 3
Middle overs
Elsa Hunter 4, Erin Burns 4, Caoimhe Bray 1, Amelia Kerr 1
Death overs
Amelia Kerr 2, Ashleigh Gardner 2

Rest of the squad: Alice Capsey, Lauren Cheatle, Courtney Sippel, Eva Ragg

Perth Scorchers

Bat +1.0 Bowl +0.7 Death +0.4
  1. Beth Mooney WK SR 130
  2. Sophie Devine OS SR 130 · econ 7.42
  3. Fatima Sana OS SR 130 · econ 7.39
  4. Freya Kemp OS SR 134 · econ 7.87
  5. Katie Mack SR 110
  6. Ruby Strange SR 109 · econ 8.06
  7. Ebony Hoskin SR 106 · econ 7.99
  8. Chloe Ainsworth SR 108 · econ 6.86
  9. Lilly Mills SR 103 · econ 7.66
  10. Taneale Peschel SR 102 · econ 8.06
  11. Alana King SR 103 · econ 7.33
Powerplay
Chloe Ainsworth 3, Sophie Devine 3
Middle overs
Alana King 2, Freya Kemp 4, Ebony Hoskin 4
Death overs
Lilly Mills 2, Alana King 2

Rest of the squad: Amy Edgar, Chloe Piparo, Mikayla Friday, Ines McKeon

Adelaide Strikers

Bat +0.6 Bowl −0.9 Death −1.1
  1. Laura Wolvaardt OS SR 126
  2. Maia Bouchier OS SR 126
  3. Bridget Patterson WK SR 123
  4. Madeline Penna SR 115 · econ 7.66
  5. Tahlia McGrath SR 115 · econ 8.08
  6. Amanda Wellington SR 129 · econ 6.87
  7. Ellie Johnston WK SR 123
  8. Eleanor Larosa SR 109 · econ 7.60
  9. Megan Schutt SR 112 · econ 7.21
  10. Darcie Brown SR 108 · econ 7.32
  11. Sophie Ecclestone OS SR 114 · econ 6.72
Powerplay
Megan Schutt 3, Amanda Wellington 2, Darcie Brown 1
Middle overs
Eleanor Larosa 4, Sophie Ecclestone 2, Darcie Brown 3, Tahlia McGrath 1
Death overs
Amanda Wellington 2, Sophie Ecclestone 2

Rest of the squad: Emma de Broughe, Anesu Mushangwe, Ella Wilson, Maggie Clark

Hobart Hurricanes

Bat −2.0 Bowl +0.6 Death +0.1
  1. Lizelle Lee OS SR 134
  2. Chinelle Henry OS SR 134 · econ 7.40
  3. Chamari Athapaththu OS SR 123 · econ 6.81
  4. Nicola Carey SR 122 · econ 8.05
  5. Heather Graham SR 111 · econ 7.46
  6. Callie Wilson SR 109 · econ 8.06
  7. Ella Hayward SR 108 · econ 8.07
  8. Lauren Smith SR 111 · econ 6.98
  9. Kate Pelle WK SR 105
  10. Amy Smith SR 107 · econ 7.14
  11. Molly Strano SR 104 · econ 7.80
Powerplay
Chinelle Henry 3, Molly Strano 3
Middle overs
Chamari Athapaththu 2, Amy Smith 4, Lauren Smith 4
Death overs
Chamari Athapaththu 2, Heather Graham 2

Rest of the squad: Ruth Johnston, Hayley Silver-Holmes, Linsey Smith, Rachel Trenaman

Melbourne Stars

Bat −6.5 Bowl +2.7 Death +0.9
  1. Meg Lanning SR 128
  2. Annabel Sutherland SR 132 · econ 7.08
  3. Dani Gibson OS SR 130 · econ 8.02
  4. Amy Jones WK OS SR 121
  5. Rhys McKenna SR 120 · econ 7.95
  6. Indigo Noble SR 110
  7. Zoe Samuel SR 110
  8. Tia Davidge SR 110
  9. Kim Garth SR 105 · econ 6.79
  10. Charlie Dean OS SR 110 · econ 6.77
  11. Sophie Day SR 100 · econ 7.54
Powerplay
Kim Garth 3, Sophie Day 2, Charlie Dean 1
Middle overs
Charlie Dean 3, Kim Garth 1, Annabel Sutherland 2, Rhys McKenna 4
Death overs
Sophie Day 2, Annabel Sutherland 2

Rest of the squad: Maisy Gibson, Georgia Prestwidge, Carly Leeson, Naomi Stalenberg

Brisbane Heat

Bat −1.0 Bowl −5.2 Death −0.9
  1. Grace Harris SR 146 · econ 8.01
  2. Orla Prendergast OS SR 122 · econ 6.85
  3. Charli Knott SR 123 · econ 7.47
  4. Georgia Redmayne SR 113
  5. Annie O'Neil SR 130
  6. Yastika Bhatia WK OS SR 116
  7. Lily Bassingthwaighte SR 110 · econ 8.09
  8. Lucy Hamilton SR 110
  9. Bonnie Berry SR 110
  10. Grace Parsons SR 108 · econ 7.56
  11. Sarah Glenn OS SR 108 · econ 7.13
Powerplay
Orla Prendergast 2, Charli Knott 3, Sarah Glenn 1
Middle overs
Sarah Glenn 3, Grace Parsons 4, Charli Knott 1, Grace Harris 2
Death overs
Orla Prendergast 2, Grace Harris 2

Rest of the squad: Lucinda Bourke, Sianna Ginger, Mikayla Wrigley, Cathy White

Melbourne Renegades

Bat −5.3 Bowl −3.0 Death +1.0
  1. Georgia Wareham SR 136 · econ 6.91
  2. Hayley Matthews OS SR 122 · econ 7.37
  3. Nicole Faltum WK SR 114
  4. Deandra Dottin OS SR 115 · econ 8.07
  5. Chloe Tryon OS SR 122 · econ 7.43
  6. Courtney Webb SR 111 · econ 8.09
  7. Tayla Vlaeminck SR 110 · econ 7.04
  8. Lucy Wilson SR 110
  9. Sophie Molineux SR 111 · econ 7.05
  10. Sara Kennedy SR 109 · econ 7.76
  11. Tess Flintoff SR 107 · econ 7.70
Powerplay
Tayla Vlaeminck 3, Georgia Wareham 2, Sophie Molineux 1
Middle overs
Tayla Vlaeminck 1, Sophie Molineux 3, Hayley Matthews 2, Tess Flintoff 4
Death overs
Georgia Wareham 2, Hayley Matthews 2

Rest of the squad: Milly Illingworth, Olivia Porter, Annie Wikman, Sophie Reid

How to read these teams

SR
The player's expected strike rate (runs per 100 balls), from recent women's T20 cricket.
econ
Expected runs conceded per over, shown for genuine bowlers.
WK / OS
Wicketkeeper / overseas player.
Overs
Overs each bowler gets in each phase: the best death bowlers bowl overs 17–20 (2 each at most), then the powerplay and middle overs are filled, with no one bowling more than 4. Part-timers appear when the XI runs out of genuine bowlers.

How the predictions are made

These are statistical predictions for interest, not betting advice. See the Women's Big Bash League page for fixtures, squads and standings.