Women's Big Bash League (WBBL) · Strikers Women v Stars Women
Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars Match prediction
Result: Adelaide Strikers won by 21 runs · Adelaide Strikers 185/2 · Melbourne Stars 164/7Upset
Chance of winning, from 20,000 simulations of this match. About 5% of simulations were washed out and are left out of these figures.
- leggully's model makes Melbourne Stars favourites to beat Adelaide Strikers in the WBBL on 31 October 2026, winning 54% of 20,000 simulated matches.
- Batting first, Adelaide Strikers would be expected to score about 151 and Melbourne Stars about 154 in this WBBL match.
- Adelaide Strikers are more likely to out-hit Melbourne Stars for sixes (41% to 39%, level the rest of the time), with about 2.0 sixes expected to 1.9.
- The model expects about 282 runs in Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars (both innings), with 30 fours and 4 sixes - 34 boundaries in all.
- Adelaide Strikers have the stronger batting line-up, by about 1.0 runs an innings.
- Melbourne Stars have the stronger bowling attack, by about 6.6 runs an innings.
- Melbourne Stars have the stronger death bowling, by about 2.5 runs an innings.
Likely scores and sixes
What each side would be expected to score batting first against this opposition's bowling attack, and how many sixes it's expected to hit. A chasing side usually ends with less, because it stops once it passes the target.
| Team | Batting first | 8 in 10 between | Expected fours | Expected sixes | Hits more sixes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Strikers | 151 | 122–181 | 14.6 | 2.0 | 41% |
| Melbourne Stars | 154 | 125–184 | 15.1 | 1.9 | 39% |
How to read this table
- Batting first
- The side's typical total if it bats first: its batting rating against the other side's bowling rating, starting from the par score at Karen Rolton Oval (158). The par is what an average side would expect to make batting first there, from the Women's Big Bash League's scoring this season and how the ground usually plays compared with others. A couple of runs are added for the home side.
- 8 in 10 between
- In 8 simulated matches out of 10, the batting-first total falls in this range. T20 scores swing a lot, so it's wide.
- Expected fours
- The average number of fours the side hits in the match, batting first or second.
- Expected sixes
- The average number of sixes the side hits in the match, batting first or second.
- Hits more sixes
- How often this side hits more sixes than the other. The two don't add up to 100% because the teams hit the same number 20% of the time.
The higher of the two scores in the match is typically around 154, and there's a 58% chance that someone makes 150 or more. It can be lower than the batting-first figures because a successful chase stops just past the target.
Match totals
Both teams' innings added together: total runs, fours, sixes and boundaries in the match. These come from the same 20,000 simulations, so a chase that's won early counts only the runs and boundaries actually scored.
| Total | Expected | Middle | 8 in 10 between | Chance of going over | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 282 | 283 | 233–329 | over 263.5 · 69% | over 283.5 · 49% | over 303.5 · 29% |
| Fours | 29.6 | 29 | 21–38 | over 25.5 · 72% | over 29.5 · 49% | over 33.5 · 27% |
| Sixes | 3.9 | 4 | 1–7 | over 2.5 · 73% | over 4.5 · 34% | over 6.5 · 11% |
| Boundaries (4s + 6s) | 33.5 | 33 | 24–43 | over 28.5 · 74% | over 33.5 · 49% | over 38.5 · 24% |
How to read this table
- Expected
- The average across all the simulated matches.
- Middle
- The middle value: half the simulated matches finished above it and half below.
- 8 in 10 between
- In 8 simulated matches out of 10 the total landed in this range.
- Chance of going over
- How often the total went over each line. For example, over 283.5 · 49% means 49% of simulated matches had more than 283.5 runs.
- Boundaries
- Fours and sixes added together.
Washed-out matches are left out. Totals depend heavily on who bats first and how big the first innings is, so the ranges are wide. Treat these as chances, not certainties.
How the teams compare
Each side's predicted XI for this match, rated in runs per innings against the average Women's Big Bash League side. Positive is better than average, negative is worse. These ratings are what decides the win chances above.
| Rating | Adelaide Strikers | Melbourne Stars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | −5.6 | 0.0 | Melbourne Stars +5.6 |
| Batting | −4.4 | −5.4 | Adelaide Strikers +1.0 |
| Bowling | −1.2 | +5.4 | Melbourne Stars +6.6 |
| Death bowling | 0.0 | +2.5 | Melbourne Stars +2.5 |
| Bowling options | 7 | 7 | |
| Sixes per innings | 2.3 | 2.3 |
How to read this table
- Overall
- Batting and bowling added together: roughly how many runs a match better (+) or worse (−) the side is than an average team.
- Batting
- Runs per innings the XI adds compared with an average line-up. Each player is judged against what an average batter does in the same situations: the overs left, the wickets down, the ground and the bowlers faced. Getting out costs what a wicket is worth at that point, which is a lot early and little in the last over. Players are weighted by the balls they usually face in their normal batting position.
- Bowling
- Runs per innings the attack saves compared with an average attack, with the 20 overs shared out the way a captain would. Each over is judged the same way: runs conceded and wickets taken against what an average bowler manages in that situation and against those batters.
- Death bowling
- The part of the bowling rating from overs 17–20. It's already included in Bowling.
- Bowling options
- Genuine bowlers in the XI: players with at least 6 overs in the recent data. With fewer than five, part-timers bowl the rest and it costs runs.
- Sixes per innings
- Sixes the XI is expected to hit against an average attack. Against this opponent it can be higher or lower, as in the table above.
- Edge
- Which side is better on that rating, and by how many runs.
Predicted XIs
The strongest XI each squad allowed when the prediction was made, with at most three overseas players. Players are listed in the order they usually bat, which can change on the day. Underneath is how the model shares out the 20 overs. These are the model's picks, not team announcements.
Adelaide Strikers
- Maia Bouchier OS SR 125
- Laura Wolvaardt OS SR 126
- Madeline Penna SR 110 · econ 7.47
- Tahlia McGrath SR 115 · econ 8.01
- Bridget Patterson WK SR 123
- Ellie Johnston WK SR 122
- Amanda Wellington SR 129 · econ 6.85
- Sophie Ecclestone OS SR 114 · econ 6.73
- Eleanor Larosa SR 108 · econ 7.85
- Megan Schutt SR 111 · econ 7.19
- Darcie Brown SR 107 · econ 7.30
- Powerplay
- Amanda Wellington 2, Megan Schutt 3, Darcie Brown 1
- Middle overs
- Sophie Ecclestone 2, Eleanor Larosa 4, Darcie Brown 3, Tahlia McGrath 1
- Death overs
- Amanda Wellington 2, Sophie Ecclestone 2
Rest of the squad: Emma de Broughe, Anesu Mushangwe, Ella Wilson, Maggie Clark
Melbourne Stars
- Meg Lanning SR 128
- Amy Jones OS SR 121
- Annabel Sutherland SR 130 · econ 7.01
- Dani Gibson OS SR 129 · econ 7.87
- Indigo Noble SR 109
- Zoe Samuel SR 109
- Charlie Dean OS SR 113 · econ 6.85
- Georgia Prestwidge SR 110 · econ 8.20
- Kim Garth SR 100 · econ 6.81
- Maisy Gibson SR 101 · econ 7.87
- Sophie Day SR 100 · econ 7.33
- Powerplay
- Kim Garth 3, Sophie Day 2, Maisy Gibson 1
- Middle overs
- Charlie Dean 4, Kim Garth 1, Annabel Sutherland 4, Maisy Gibson 1
- Death overs
- Sophie Day 2, Maisy Gibson 2
Rest of the squad: Rhys McKenna, Carly Leeson, Tia Davidge, Naomi Stalenberg
How to read these teams
- SR
- The player's expected strike rate (runs per 100 balls), from recent women's T20 cricket.
- econ
- Expected runs conceded per over, shown for genuine bowlers.
- WK / OS
- Wicketkeeper / overseas player.
- Overs
- Overs each bowler gets in each phase: the best death bowlers bowl overs 17–20 (2 each at most), then the powerplay (overs 1–6) and middle overs (7–16) are filled, with no one bowling more than 4.
How this prediction is made
- Player ratings come from 497,246 balls of women's T20 cricket over the last 4 years (2,198 matches). Recent matches and stronger competitions count for more. Every ball is rated by the runs it added to or took from the batting side's expected total, compared with an average player in the same match situation, at the same kind of ground, against the same opposition.
- The match is played 20,000 times. Each side's score is drawn at random around its likely score, the side batting second stops once it passes the target, and sixes depend on the batters, the bowlers and the size of the innings.
- The ground sets the starting point: a par of 158 at Karen Rolton Oval.
- What it doesn't know: the pitch on the day, the weather, the toss, and any team news after 30 Oct 2026, when this prediction was made.
Full stats for Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars (head-to-head, form, squads, matchups, venue) · Women's Big Bash League predictions (title chances, every team)
This prediction was made on 30 Oct 2026, before the match, and is not updated afterwards. The percentages are chances, not certainties. These are statistical predictions for interest, not betting advice.